the black swan the impact of highly improbable

His motto could be the old Dragnet line, “Just the facts, ma’am.” Predictions are pointless in the face of life’s nonlinear structure and one should just try as best as possible to look clearly at facts. The book states that luck plays a huge role in all of life - both in one’s personal life and in the huge events, natural and man-made, that assail us. It is full of odd and interesting things, all informed by Taleb’s passionate dislike of most business executives, almost all economists, and many other prognosticators. Not even his first volume, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, has quite the panache and bite of this volume.

I have never read a book quite like this one, and neither have you. in math, and has had much success as a trader, mainly in currencies. But many people in power, business, politics, and the enormous advice business all around us, really can’t know what they claim they do know.ĭr. I guess I should have rushed into print as soon as I had this thought.īoth the author and I have the greatest respect for people who DO know things - everyone from dentists to carpenters and even now and then a consultant. Well, here is Nassim Taleb writing The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, a surprise best seller saying more or less the same thing. My group buddies all tended to agree in varying levels with me, and were surprised that this statement isn’t more often stated. My answer, after some reflection, was Nobody Knows Anything. For this meeting we were asked to state what has most surprised each of us over our working lives. A short while ago I attended a meeting of a social and discussion group I’ve been part of for 20 years or so.

The black swan the impact of highly improbable